TARGET POPULATION ANALYSIS


Report to the New Jersey Community Loan Fund

May 1, 1995

Section 2: Target Population Analysis


Each of the eight counties selected by the FUND for target population analysis offers particular challenges and opportunities. In this section we take a sharper look at the details of each county. The target counties are discussed in the following order: Commuting Zone # 1 (Coastal and Southern areas) -- Atlantic, Camden, Cumberland, Salem; Commuting Zone # 2 (Northern area) -- Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union. These counties are among the nine found to be most distressed.

Commuting Zone # 1, Coastal and Southern areas

Atlantic County

With a population of 224,327, Atlantic County has 2.9% of the state's population. Seventy-four percent of the county's population is White, 16.9% is African-American, and 6.9% is Hispanic (Table 1.1). In general, the county fares poorly relative to the state as measured in the distress indicators in Summary Tables A and B. Incomes are low; minority educational attainment is low; the one bright spot is its unemployment rate, which is below the state's average.

PCI for Atlantic County is $16,016, 14.4% below the state average of $18,714 (Table 2.1). PCI by race and ethnicity in the county is below the respective state average for these groups. For Whites, PCI is $17,403, 15.0% below the state average; African-Americans, with PCI of $11,431, are 1.0% below the state average, while Hispanics, with PCI of $8,901, are 13.0% below the state average (Table 2.1). Average household income for Whites in the state is $53,821 (Table 6.1); Atlantic County is well below the state average. For Whites in the county, average household income is $43,766, (-18.7% of state average); and for African-Americans and Hispanics, average household income is only $30,909 (-12% of state average) and $30,763 (6.1% of state average), respectively (Tables 6.1 and 6.2). Of the eight counties described within this Target Population Analysis section, African-American PCI in Atlantic county ranks second and is the highest among the four counties in this section which fall into Commuting Zone # 1.

For persons living in poverty, 9.4% of Atlantic County's population falls within this category, compared to the state average of 7.6%. Among Whites in the county, the rate is 6.1%. The rate for African-Americans is 20.6%; and for Hispanics, the rate is 25.8%, well above the state averages for these populations of 19.3% and 19.1%, respectively (Table 3.2).

Atlantic County also exceeds the state in the percentage of female-headed households. The county rate is 19.9%, compared to the state average of 16.1%. For female-headed households with children the county is significantly higher than the state, 10.1% for the county versus 7.5% for the state (Table 7.1). For Whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics, the percentage of female-headed households with children are higher in the county than in the state. Thus, female-headed households with children characterize 27.4% of all African-American households in Atlantic County, but only 24.2% for all African-American households in the state (Table 7.3); for Hispanics the figures are 22.7% for the county versus 16.8% for the state (Table 7.6); for Whites it is 6.0%, compared to 4.8% (Table 7.2).

Atlantic County exceeds the state average of 32.2% of the percentage of minorities in the population with less than a high school diploma. The rate in Atlantic County is 36.7%. On the other hand, it also exceeds the state average for the number of minority persons with a high school diploma, 29.7% of all minorities over 25 (10.6% above the state average). The county fares quite poorly, however, with respect to minorities with more than a high school diploma. In New Jersey, about 41.0% of the minority population over 25 have some post-secondary education; in Atlantic county the figure is only 33.6% (Tables 5.2,5.3, 5.4).

The unemployment rate in Atlantic County is 5.5%, slightly below the state average of 5.7% (Table 4.7). The high employment rates and concomitant lower PCI for the county are likely associated with the industrial mix. Looking at employment in selected industries, 49.7% of persons employed in Atlantic County are in the service industry, compared to 32.2% statewide. This concentration is probably due to the casino industry's location in Atlantic County, the only place where it is allowed in the state. In the manufacturing sector, 3.1% of the county's employed population work in industry, compared to 10.4% statewide (Table 8.2). Employment in wholesale trades is 2.9% in the county, while the state average is 6.2% (Table 8.2). Atlantic County also exceeds the state average for employment in agriculture, forestry and fishing, 1.4% versus 1.2%, respectively (Table 8.2.)

The D.O.L. county industry employment projections for the years 1990 to 2005 estimate that a total of about 20,900 jobs will be added in the county. Annual growth for Atlantic county is estimated at 0.9% per year, equal to the state, but below the average for the D.O.L.'s Coastal New Jersey region. Cape May, Monmouth, and Ocean counties, which make up the rest of this region, are estimated to grow at 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.9%, respectively.


Camden County

The population of Camden County is 502,824 -- 6.5% of the state's total population. Approximately seventy-five percent (75.1%) of the population in Camden County is White, 15.8% is African-American, and 6.6% is Hispanic (Table 1.1).

PCI in the county is $15,773. This is 15.7% below the state average. Whites in Camden County have PCI of $17,547, placing them about 14.0% below the average for their population in the state (Table 2.1). The figures for African-Americans and Hispanics are well below both the state average and the rate for Whites in Camden County. African-Americans have an average PCI of $9936, which is 14.0% below the state average. The PCI for Hispanics is $7540, which is 30.0% below the state average. Compared to the state average household income for Whites of $53,821, Whites in Camden County have average household incomes of $46,764. Among African-Americans and Hispanics, the average household income is considerably less at $30,886 and $26,360 respectively (Table 2.1).

Over ten percent (10.4%) of Camden County's population lives in poverty, in comparison to 7.6% of the population statewide. Five percent (5.0%) of Whites, 25.4% of African-Americans, and 38.9% of Hispanics in the county live in poverty (Table 3.2).

Two thirds of the county's minority population have either graduated from high school or received some post secondary education, however, Camden still exceeds the state average of minorities with less than a high school diploma, 36.7%, compared to 32.2%(Table 5.1). A total of 65.2% of African-Americans have a high school diploma or better (Table 5.2) compared to 43.4% of Hispanics (Table 5.4.)

Hispanics ranked the worst of all minority populations in the county (except occasionally "Other Minorities") on educational attainment, income and poverty rates.

In Camden County, 19.6% of households are headed by females, of which 10.4% have children. This compares with the state average of 16.1% of households headed by females, of which only 7.6% have children (Table 7.1).

At 5.9%, the unemployment rate in the county is slightly higher than the state average of 5.7%. Looking at employment in industries projected by the D.O.L. for some employment growth between 1990-2005, the service industry employs 34.2% of Camden County's employed population (Table 8.2). 6.5% of its workforce is employed in the wholesale trades, and 7.8% is employed in manufacturing and 7.9% is construction (Table 8.4).


Cumberland County

Cumberland has a population of 138,053, about 1.8% of the state. It has an African-American population of 22,736 (16.5%); the Hispanic population is 17,349 (12.6%); and other minorities are about 2%. Cumberland county is well below the state averages for several of the distress indicators (see Tables A and B). Again, while the rates of distress in this county are high, the absolute numbers are low compared to other northern counties.

Cumberland county appears from the 1990 Census data as a poor county relative to the state. At $12,560, it has the lowest per capita income of any county in the state, 33% below the average; median family income of $34,571 for Cumberland county, is 27% below the state average of $47,589 (see Tables A and B). For Hispanics, average household income is $25,296, 22% below the state average of $36,349 (Table B). African-American households in the county earn 16% less than average for African-American households, $29,433 compared to $35,135. Cumberland has the fourth highest relative unemployment rate (7.4%, Table B), and the highest percentage of minorities with less than a high school education (51%.)

Minorities, particularly Hispanic and African-American households, in Cumberland county have incomes well below their statewide counterparts, $29,433 and $25,296, respectively, compared to a state average of $36,349 for Hispanics and $35,135 for African-Americans. These low wages are combined with a high overall county unemployment rate relative to the state (7.4% versus 5.7%, Table B). For African-Americans and Hispanics, the unemployment rates were actually three times the overall county rate. The unemployment rate for African-American males and females was 14.9% and 13.3 %, respectively (Table 4.3); for Hispanics, rates were 14.94% and 12.13% for males and females respectively (Table 4.6). Collectively, these factors suggest the need for education at and above the high school level for minorities in Cumberland county. Better education may lead to better job opportunities and, in turn, increase household incomes for minorities.

D.O.L. projections reflect employment growth in the region in government, manufacturing and construction. These strong sectors could be targeted to enhance any employment growth strategies in Cumberland County.


Salem County

The 1990 Census data indicate economic hardship for Salem county which ranks very high on several of the summary indicators in Tables A and B. Salem has the lowest household income relative to the state's average for African-Americans (-28%); the third lowest relative household income for Hispanics (-14.3%); the third highest absolute percentage of minorities with less than a high school education (39.2%); and the second lowest relative per capita income (-25.4%). However, the lower absolute population for the county means that while the concentration of distress is high relative to the state, the absolute number of those affected by these indicators is far from the magnitude of counties like Essex or Bergen. Salem's total population is 65,294, less than 1% of the state's total population of 7.7 million. The African-American population comprises 14.6% (9,553) of the total; Hispanics comprise 1.9% (Table 1.1).

Salem county's unemployment rate, 5.0% in 1989, was below the state average of 5.7%. In addition, most of those who worked in 1989 were employed full-time for 47 or more of the weeks (see Tables 10.1 and 10.2). Nonetheless, the county still suffered low per capita income, $13,961 compared to the state average of $18,714; median family income for the county was $38,294, compared to the state average of $47,589 (see Table 2.1). The phenomenon of both high employment and low income levels might be due to a larger than usual percentage of lower paid workers in the county. Salem county had the highest absolute percentage of workers employed in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing sectors, (3.7%), compared to 1.2% for the state's economy as a whole (see Table 8.2).

African-American household income ranked lowest relative to the state ($25,301; Table B), and Hispanic household income ranked third lowest relative to the state ($28,080; Table B) for Salem county. African-American unemployment rates for males (12.2%) and females(12.6%) more than doubled the overall county rates. At the same time, it registered the third highest percentage of minorities with less than a high school education (39.2%). As such, there appears to have been a paucity of high paying job prospects for minorities in these communities.

The shortage of such high paying jobs for minorities in Salem might be linked to another interesting observation. The highest percentage of the population in this county was employed as technicians, managers, or operators/ transitional laborers (see Table 8.4). Technicians and managers are likely to need more than a high school education. It seems there could be a gap in the preparation of minorities to enter these occupations, which are strong employers in the county. If provided appropriate education, the minority population could add substantially to the labor pool of technicians and managers, while the higher wages and salaries of such occupations could increase incomes for the minority residents of Salem county.

Although the D.O.L. forecasts fair employment growth for government, manufacturing, and construction industries in the southern region of the state, it projects Salem to have the second lowest amount of new jobs created by the year 2005 (2,000 jobs.) Job creation in Salem might be fostered through links to the regional strengths.


Commuting Zone # 2, Northern area

Essex

Essex has the second highest population in the state with 778,206 persons: 45% of the population is White; 40% of the population is African-American; 12% is Hispanic; 2.6% is Asian; and the remainder (0.5%) are other races (see Table 1.1). Essex has the highest percentage of its population classified as non-White.

Median family income for all families in Essex was $42,150, 11.4% below the state average of $47,589. A closer look at per capita income reveals that income levels for African-Americans, Hispanics, and the category 'other races' are below the state average. Thus PCI for African-Americans in Essex is 5.0% below the state average, $10,940 versus $11,542; for Hispanics, PCI is 16% less than the state average, $9,066 versus $10,761. In contrast, PCI for Whites and Asians is above the state average: PCI for Whites in Essex is $23,802 versus $20,406 for all Whites in New Jersey; PCI for Asians in Essex is $18,618 versus $17,913 for all Asians in New Jersey (Table 2.1). Of the eight counties examined in this section, Essex had the highest White PCI, second highest overall PCI and ranked third on African-American and Hispanic PCIs.

Essex county has the largest number of persons living in poverty of all New Jersey's counties. Almost 109,000 persons live in poverty; this represents 14.4% of the population, a poverty rate twice the state average of 7.6% (Table 3.1). The high rate of poverty in Essex is, in part, the result of the high percentage of minorities in the population--groups for whom the poverty rates are generally much higher. But even at the race-specific level, poverty rates for all races are higher for the residents of Essex than they are for the state as a whole. The poverty rate for African-Americans in Essex is 22.0%, compared to 19.3% for the state; for Hispanics the numbers are 26.2% in Essex, compared to 19.1% for New Jersey; for other races it is 29.2% for the county and 22.9% for the state; for Whites the poverty rate for Essex is 6.9% compared to 5.0% for the state (Table 3.2). The D.O.L. estimates Essex to have the slowest employment growth in the state, with near negligible annual growth. From 1990 - 2005, the combined total percent employment growth is estimated at 0.4%, with only 1,600 new jobs being created (smallest projected county employment increase), (D.O.L., pp., 3,4.)


Hudson

Hudson County is the fourth most populated county in New Jersey, and it is racially and ethnically diverse. With more than 550,000 people, Hudson county has 7.2% of the state's population. After Essex, it is the county with the highest percentage of non-Whites: 47.7% of the population is White, compared to the state average of 74.2% (see Table 1). Hudson has the largest amount of Hispanics of any county, with 181,222 Hispanic persons. The Hispanic population comprises one third of the county's population, and is 250% of the state average. About 13% of the population is African-American; 6.4% is Asian; and 0.4% is of other races.

Income levels in the county are weaker than the state as whole. Per capita income is 22.6% below the state PCI ($14,480 compared to $18,714; Table 2.1). Median family incomes are also substantially below the state average, $35,250 versus $47,589 (Table A). As noted above, much of the county is minority, however, per capita incomes for the non-White race and ethnic groups is not that far below the state average for those groups. But, for Whites and Asians -- the two races with the highest per capita incomes in the state -- PCI is substantially below the state average. Asian PCI in Hudson county is $13,293, almost 26% below the state average for Asians of $17,913 (see Table 2.1). For Whites, PCI in the county is $16,240, compared to $20,406 -- 20% below the state mean. The low per capita incomes for Whites is likely due to the high number of Hispanics in the state who are reported as White. Hudson County's PCI for African Americans is $10,182, compared to $11,542 statewide for African-Americans; for Hispanics, the PCI is $10,460, compared to $10,761 for Hispanics across the state (Table 2.1). Hudson had the second highest Hispanic PCI of the eight counties described in this section, despite ranking sixth in PCI for all populations combined (Table 2.1.)

Hudson has the second largest number of persons living in poverty (81,171; Table A). The poverty rate is almost twice the state average -- 14.8% versus 7.6% -- and represents the highest percentage of persons living in poverty (see Table 3.1). Children in Hudson are particularly likely to grow up poor. For the state as a whole, about 11% of the persons 17 and under live in poverty; for Hudson county it is 23.9%, representing about 29,000 children. Of the 137,646 family households in Hudson, 33,173, or 24.1% of all households, are headed by females; more than half of those female headed households have children (16,773; see Table 7.1). Hudson has the second highest county population of female-headed households. For African-American households, nearly half of all households are headed by women -- 60% of which have children (see Table 7.3). In Hispanic households headed by females (12,462 of 46,990 households), 63.4% have children (see Table 7.6).

Despite the low incomes, labor force participation rates in the county are above the state average for Hispanic and African-American males (Tables 4.6 and 4.3). In contrast, labor force participation rates for Asian males is only 79.5% compared to the state average (for Asian males) of 83.1% (Table 4.4). Overall, Hudson's unemployment rate (in 1989) was 8.8% -- the second highest in the state (Table B). Nearly 150,000 persons were counted as "not in the labor force" (Table 4.7).

Some of Hudson's high unemployment can be attributed to its unfortunate sectoral mix. In New Jersey's economy as a whole, 10.4% of all persons worked in manufacturing and 32.2% worked in services (Table 8.2). For Hudson county's residents (70% of whom work within the county), 14.3% were employed in manufacturing and only 27.0% in services (see Tables 9.1 and 8.2). This reliance on the weaker sectors of the regional economy and failure, for whatever reasons, to attract the growing sectors is likely to be a factor in the county's high unemployment rate (D.O.L., p. 4.) The New Jersey Department of Labor projects annual employment growth at 0.5% through the year 2005, compared to the state average of 0.9%. D.O.L. estimates 19,300 new jobs to be generated in Hudson county between 1990-2005 (D.O.L., p. 3.)


Passaic

Like several other northern counties, Passaic County's population has a higher than average percent of minorities. Of the 453,060 persons living in Passaic, 57,751 (12.7% of the total population) were African-American; 96,182 were of Hispanic origin (21.2% of the total population); and, almost 11,000 were Asian (2.4% of the total population). As a percent of total population, Hispanics are 127% above the state average and the county has the second highest number of Hispanics in the state (Table 1.1.)

PCI is 14.2% below the state's average in Passaic County, $16,048, compared to $18,714. For Hispanics, PCI is 18% below the state average for Hispanics, $8,851, compared to $10,761. Median family income is 9.5% below the state average, $43,073, compared to $47,589 (Table 2.1). Passaic has the fourth largest number of persons by county living in poverty, (44,556 persons), representing 10.0% of the county's population (Table 3.1). For African-Americans in Passaic county, 20.9% live in poverty, compared to the state average of 19.3%; for Hispanics, 19.5% live in poverty, compared to 19.1% for the state (Table 3.2). By gender, 11.5% of Passaic's female population lives in poverty, compared to the state average of only 8.8% (Table 3.4). Passaic has 17,073 children living in poverty: 15.9% of all children grow up in poverty, compared to the state average of 11.3% (Table 3.5).

Minority educational attainment is generally higher than the state average, except at the post-secondary level. At the high school graduate level, Passaic exceeds the state average 28.7% compared to 26.8%, respectively (Table 5.1). Meanwhile, each minority group also has a much lower percentage of people earning more than a high school diploma. County-wide, Passaic is 32. 7% below state average for advanced educational attainment (Table 5.1). Distributed by race and ethnicity, African-Americans in Passaic earn high school diplomas at a rate 6.7% above the state average for African-Americans (Table 5.2); Asians at a rate 2.4% above the state average (Table 5.3); and Hispanics at a rate 9.6% above the state average (Table 5.4).

The unemployment rate in Passaic is 24.1% above the state average (Summary Table B). Asian and Hispanic males are less unemployed than African-American males; 5.74% for Asian males (35% higher than the state average) and 9.58% for Hispanic males (4% higher than the state average), (Table 4.4, 4.6.) Unemployment among Hispanic females is slightly higher than for African-American woman at 13.61% (13% higher than the state average for Hispanic woman, Table 4.6) Asian women are employed at a higher rate, with an unemployment level of 6.7% (17% higher than the state average (Table 4.4). The D.O.L. projects employment growth in the county from 1990-2005 to be 12,300 jobs with annual growth at 0.4%, which is less than half the state growth rate of 0.9% (D.O.L. county projections, Part B, p. 3).

The mix of industries in the county provide both opportunity and challenges for Passaic's economic future. Passaic's highest employment sectors are service at 28.3% and retail at 19.1%, which are projected by the D.O.L. to grow statewide by the year 2005 at rates of 34.2% and 11.9% respectively (Table 8.2). Since Passaic's service level employment is at a level 13% below the state average, this could be an area which the county could seek to increase (Table 8.2). In the retail sector, Passaic is operating at a level 9% higher than the state average which may indicate it is able to absorb some of the state's projected employment growth in this area. On the negative side, 16.1% of the county is employed in manufacturing which the D.O.L. predicts to decline statewide by 15.7% by the year 2005 (Table 8.2 and D.O.L. p. 3).


Union

Union County has a total population of 493,819 persons, a higher than average percentage of which are minority population: 34.6% of the county is non-White compared to the state average of 25.8%. The populations of Whites and Asians in Union County are 11.8% and 21.9% below the state's average for those groups, respectively; the populations for African-Americans and Hispanics are 41.7% and 45.3% above the state's average, for those groups, respectively (Table 1.1).

Per capita income (PCI) in 1989 was 5.1% above the state average. By racial and ethnic groups, Union also exceeded the state averages. For Whites it was $21,840, compared to 20,406; for African-Americans it was $12,998, compared to $11,542; for Hispanics it was 11,467, compared to $10,761 (Table 2.1) Median family incomes were also above the state average, $48,862 compared to the state's median of $47,589 (Table 2.1). They were especially strong for Hispanics and African-Americans. African-American and Hispanic household incomes in Union County were 16.3% and 18.5% above the state's average for these populations, respectively (Tables 6.1 and 6.2). Nonetheless, there were still more than 35,000 persons (of all races) living in poverty in Union county in 1989 (Table 3.5).

Union ranked highest of the eight Target Population Analysis counties on median family income and PCI. Union also had the highest PCI for African-Americans and Hispanics, $12,998 and $11,467 respectively of the eight counties.

African-Americans and Hispanics in Union County received high school diplomas at a rate above the state average for these populations. In Union County, African-American's receive high school diplomas at a rate of 8.2% above the state average (Table 5.2); Hispanics at 8.9% above the state average (Table 5.4). Moreover, African-Americans receive post-secondary education at slightly more than the state average (Tables 5.2 and 5.4). On educational attainment, Union also ranked highest among the Target Population Analysis counties.

Higher educational attainment may be part of the reason for the lower unemployment rates and higher labor force participation rates among these populations. The unemployment rate for Hispanic males is 7.6%, while statewide it is 9.2% for Hispanics (Table 4.6). For African American males, the unemployment rate is 10.5%, which is lower than the state's unemployment rate for male African-Americans of 12.9% (Table 4.3). At the same time, the labor participation rates for male Hispanics is 84.4%, while the state's is 81.3% (Table 4.6); for African American males, it is 75.8%, while the state's is 70.1% (Table 4.3).

There is a lower than average rate of female-headed households in Union County: For Hispanics, the rate is 19.9% compared to the state average for Hispanic households of 24.3%. For Hispanic households with children, the county and state rates are 12.8% and 16.8% respectively. For African-American female-headed households, the rates are 34.9% in the county and 41.3% statewide; with kids the rates are 18.5% in the county and 24.2% in the state (Table 7.3).




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