TARGET POPULATION ANALYSIS


Report to the New Jersey Community Loan Fund

May 1, 1995

Data Collection and Method


Data in this report come from two sources. The demographic data -- including population, race, labor force participation rates, unemployment rates, etc. -- come from the 1990 Census. Information was down-loaded directly from the 1990 STF3A compact discs issued by the U.S. Bureau of Census in August of 19922. Population figures are for 1990 while employment-related and earnings data are from 1989. The Corporation for Enterprise Development requested the following information:

  1. per capita mean income by race;
  2. median family income by race;
  3. average household size by race;
  4. educational attainment level by race;
  5. civilian labor force employment by race and by sex;
  6. industry employment breakdowns (for all residents over 16);
  7. occupational breakdown (for all residents over 16);
  8. class of worker;
  9. age distribution;
  10. place of work (for all residents over 16);
  11. ability to speak English by age;
  12. poverty by sex and race.

The five race categories are: African-American, White, Native American, Asian and Pacific Islander, and Other. For most variables, within each of these five categories are two sub-groups: "of Hispanic origin" and "not of Hispanic origin." However, in some cases, the Census Bureau does not recognize Hispanics as a race category, so information on persons of Hispanic origin is not always reported. As a result, for certain variables the population totaled across the races will be greater than the actual population due to double-counting.

Employment projections for the state3 and county4 come from the New Jersey Department of Labor's (D.O.L.) Industry and Occupational Employment Projections for New Jersey: 1990 - 2005 released in January 1994. While these projections are a noteworthy, it is important to recognize their limitations. First, projections are made based on historical trends and the continuance of those rates of change. They are not forecasts or predictions about the future. Second, the projections made by the Department of Labor are "not designated 'official' nor 'policy' projections; and should not be interpreted as goal or policy oriented"5

.

The CED has stressed the importance of a broad and comparative analysis of the state's health. As a result, we present both absolute and relative numbers. In addition, many tables feature percent and relative percent. Absolute percents are that place's percent of the population being measured; absolute percents will total to 100%. For example, Table 1. Total Population and Population by Race shows that 3.4% of the state is Asian. In comparison, Asians in Commuting Zone #1 make up 1.7% of the total population. Thus, Commuting Zone #1's percentage relative to the state average, is -50.2%.

This report analyzes the state at two levels. First, at the commuting zone level, of which there are three in New Jersey; and, second, at the county level of which New Jersey has twenty-one. The three commuting zones are:

  1. Commuting Zone 5021 (Zone #1) -- 7 southern counties:
    Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem;
  2. Commuting Zone 5022 (Zone #2) -- 12 central and northern counties:
    Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren;
  3. Commuting Zone 5023 (Zone #3) -- 2 central counties:
    Monmouth, Ocean.

A few words of caution before drawing strong conclusions on data at the commuting zone level. First, their populations are very different so high relative rates of distress may not necessarily mean higher absolute numbers. Commuting Zone #1 has a population of just over 1.6 million people, Zone #2 is just over 5 million, and Zone #3 has a population of about 986,000. Secondly, Commuting Zones #1 and #2 tend to obscure what many New Jerseyans see as two distinct sections of the state: northern, and central New Jersey. In this regional sense, northern New Jersey would include Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Sussex, Union, and Warren; central New Jersey would consist of Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and the two counties of Commuting Zone #2 (Monmouth and Ocean). Southern New Jersey is consistent with Commuting Zone #1. Accordingly, the Department of Labor employment growth projections discussed later, group the state into four regions: northern, central, southern, and coastal New Jersey6. Lastly, it must be mentioned that the following census data is now six years old, thus it may not accurately represent present conditions.

One of the main goals of this report is to identify populations and places where communities are likely to be experiencing economic distress. The Appendix contains two tables (Summary Tables A and B) which summarize and sort eight "distress indicators" for the three commuting zones and the twenty-one counties. The indicators are: per capita income, median family income, persons living in poverty, females living in poverty, minorities with less than a high school diploma, average household income for African-Americans, average household income for Hispanics, and unemployment rates. The tables arrange the worst levels of distress at the top; counties at the bottom are in better health. Supplemental tables provide detailed information on additional measures of interest. Together, these tables provide an overview of some important measures of New Jersey's social and economic health.


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