This report has attempted to assist the FUND in targeting economic development lending by providing the characteristics, deficiencies and, in some cases, strengths of particular locations. Before drawing any conclusions from this analysis, however, several caveats must be advanced. First, Census data presented here is five and six years old. While the relative conditions might remain comparable--though the D.O.L. employment projections make even this assumption tenuous--the numbers themselves could be off the mark with some degree of significance. In addition, the employment projections from the D.O.L. are not forecasts; they are used in this report because they are the most recent estimates available. Finally, the scale of this analysis prevents any assessment of the municipal situations which the FUND should consider pursuing in depth. Project Community prepared a separate research report for the FUND entitled Paterson Business Survey which explored the lending experiences and economic climate for businesses at the local level.
Of the eight counties analyzed here, Union county seems to offer the most potential for job creation. Income levels for both White and non-White populations were higher than the state average. Union ranked first among the eight Target Population Analysis counties on median family income and overall PCI. African-American and Hispanic PCIs were also highest of the eight counties. Minorities in the county compared favorably to their state counterparts on indicators of unemployment and labor force participation, and Whites only slightly less favorably. The rate of minority high school graduates exceeded state levels and African-Americans received some education after high school at a higher than average rate. Of the eight Target Population Analysis counties, Union had the highest percentage of educational attainment. Union led on post-secondary attainment, was second in percentage of high school graduates and had the lowest proportion of persons without a high school diploma. The rate of female-headed households was also lower. The threat to the county is that the D.O.L. estimates Union to experience the fourth lowest county job growth by the year 2005 (5,600 new jobs) (p.4.) largely due to a high dependence in the county on manufacturing which is expected to decline significantly. Union is estimated to have the second slowest county employment growth rate, 0.1% per year (D.O.L., p. 3.) The better than average income level for the area combined with the presence of good human capital in the form of a higher than average educational level offer advantages as a target location for both job training and economic development. For the FUND, the challenge is to direct these resources into employment areas other than manufacturing, perhaps, for example, local and interurban passenger transit.
In general, income for minority populations appear to be buoyed by White income levels. The counties in which White incomes are highest also have the highest incomes for African-American. Examples of this phenomenon occurring were in Bergen, Morris and Somerset counties. Although these counties were not among the eight discussed above, the FUND may wish to add these locations to its potential areas for job development and training efforts. Of the eight counties described in the Target Population Analysis, the three highest ranking counties on the indicator of White PCI -- Essex, Union and Passaic respectively, also had at least two of the top three positions on African-American and Hispanic PCIs.
The FUND might also try to connect future business loans to places with established links to the state's current redevelopment efforts. Governor Whitman's recently released Urban Strategy report, details her administration's commitment to work with neighborhoods that have established Neighborhood Councils (a single community development corporation or a collaboration of several CDCs) and have drafted Neighborhood Revitalization Plans. The Governor's ideas on redeveloping New Jersey's neighborhoods shares something with the federal 'empowerment zones' strategy. Both emphasize a concerted effort by business, government--at all levels, citizens, and citizens groups to insure long-term and stable improvements in urban neighborhoods. Elizabeth located in Union county is one of the initial four cities targeted for the state's new urban strategy. A related strategy, which would allow the FUND more choices, might be to help FUND Neighborhood Councils to draft their Neighborhood Revitalization Plans.
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